Washington’s recent movement of fighter jets into the southern Caribbean, including deployments reported in proximity to Guyana, has sharpened global attention on the world’s fastest-growing offshore oil province. The buildup coincides with heightened Venezuelan claims over the Essequibo region and with Guyana’s rapid production growth from the Stabroek block, which already contributes significant light, sweet crude to Atlantic Basin markets and is slated for substantial expansion over the next few years. In this environment, any perception of instability is quickly reflected in insurance pricing, financing terms, and boardroom timelines. Investors do not react only to barrels; they react to the perceived reliability of the operating theater surrounding those barrels.
Energy capital has seen versions of this movie before. In Mozambique, a multibillion-dollar LNG development paused after an insurgency disrupted the host region, and the path to restart has been paced by security benchmarks and lender comfort rather than geology. In the South China Sea, repeated harassment of survey and support vessels chilled exploration appetite and raised the cost of doing business until stronger maritime coordination took hold. West Africa offers the opposite lesson. When Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire litigated their maritime boundary, interim measures protected operations and the final judgment delivered the legal clarity investors needed. Security discipline and rule-of-law pathways do not eliminate risk, but they transform uncertain hazard into bankable parameters.
The Guyana story sits at a similar crossroads. A visible security posture that lowers the probability of incidents near producing FPSOs and construction zones will be read as deterrence and risk mitigation. A posture that coincides with escalation will be read as the opposite. Legal clarity matters just as much. Keeping the Essequibo dispute anchored in international adjudication signals a commitment to predictability and reduces expropriation fears. Project execution then becomes the third leg of credibility. When operator schedules, procurement, and commissioning proceed steadily despite regional noise, lenders compress risk premiums and underwriters moderate war-risk add-ons. Markets reward predictability more than volume alone.
The strategic question reaches beyond oil. Rapid hydrocarbon growth can crowd out non-oil sectors and leave an economy exposed to price cycles. Trinidad and Tobago’s long experience shows how a sector that dominates exports and fiscal revenue can employ relatively few people, creating an employment and inclusion challenge when prices fall. Norway’s model shows the counterfactual, where transparent fiscal rules, a strong sovereign fund, and disciplined conversions of resource windfalls into education and innovation insulated the broader economy from commodity whiplash. Guyana will need a version calibrated to local realities, but the principles travel well. Clear rules for saving, investing, and spending, paired with rigorous transparency for the Natural Resource Fund, build trust with citizens and markets alike.
A credible twelve-month agenda flows from these lessons. Keep the dispute resolution track in full public view, with plain-language updates that explain timelines and what provisional measures mean in practice. Harden the operating environment through coordinated protocols among defense, coast guard, operators, and insurers that protect offshore assets while minimizing incident risk. Encourage use of political-risk and export-credit coverage for midstream and gas projects so that risk transfer complements risk reduction. Apply local-content requirements pragmatically to build skills and supplier bases without strangling schedules. Above all, convert petroleum revenue into non-oil engines that generate jobs and export earnings: agri-processing connected to modern logistics, tourism anchored in reliability and safety, digital services and education that raise human capital, and infrastructure that lowers the cost of doing business.
Capital does not flee risk; it flees risk that cannot be priced or managed. Guyana can remain investable as a new oil power while building a resilient non-oil economy if security cooperation is credible, legal pathways are respected, fiscal institutions are transparent, and execution stays on schedule. The next discovery will add barrels; it will not, by itself, secure prosperity. Prosperity comes from turning today’s oil revenue into skills, infrastructure, and opportunity that outlast any headline.