A recent analysis of global oil production forecasts contained a statistic that should cause every Guyanese citizen to pause and reflect. According to projections for 2026, Brazil, Guyana and Argentina are expected to account for more than half of all new crude oil production growth worldwide. Together, these three countries are projected to add approximately 410,000 barrels of oil per day to global supply. Of that amount, Guyana alone is expected to contribute roughly 140,000 barrels per day.
That means a country with fewer than one million people is expected to account for nearly one fifth of all new oil production being added to the global market next year.
The significance of this figure is difficult to overstate. Global oil production is measured in tens of millions of barrels per day. The world’s largest producers include the United States, Saudi Arabia and Russia. Yet when analysts look at where the next barrels are coming from, Guyana is now one of the most important answers. We are no longer a curiosity or a promising frontier basin. We are becoming one of the central drivers of global oil production growth.
The world has already adjusted to this reality. International investors have adjusted. Energy companies have adjusted. Oil traders have adjusted. Governments have adjusted. The only group that seems not to have fully adjusted is the Guyanese public.
Many of us continue to think, act and vote as though we are still managing scarcity. We continue to celebrate achievements that should increasingly be viewed as basic expectations. We receive a cash grant and act as though government has performed an extraordinary act of generosity. We tolerate roads that deteriorate shortly after completion. We accept flooding as an unavoidable feature of life. We endure some of the highest electricity costs in the region. We watch the cost of living climb relentlessly while wages struggle to keep pace, and somehow we have convinced ourselves that this is normal.
It is not normal.
Poor countries often face difficult tradeoffs because resources are limited. Governments must choose between roads and schools, hospitals and housing, drainage and security. Citizens understand these constraints because the money simply does not exist. But Guyana is increasingly entering a different category. We are generating oil revenues at levels that previous generations could scarcely imagine. Production continues to rise, new projects continue to come online, and the forecasts suggest that the growth is far from over.
The conversation therefore has to change. The question is no longer whether Guyana can afford development. The question is whether our institutions are capable of converting unprecedented revenues into meaningful improvements in the lives of ordinary citizens.
Consider what should be possible. If Guyana is helping to drive global energy growth, why are many communities still vulnerable to flooding after heavy rainfall? Why are transportation costs so high? Why does public service delivery remain slow and bureaucratic? Why are citizens spending increasing portions of their income on food, housing and basic necessities despite record national revenues? Why do we continue to tolerate obvious waste, inefficiency and political favoritism?
These are not opposition questions or government questions. They are citizen questions. They are the questions people ask when they begin to understand the true scale of the resources available to their country.
The danger facing Guyana is not that we will run out of oil. The immediate danger is that we will continue to think like a poor country while receiving the revenues of a rich one. A population conditioned by decades of scarcity can become surprisingly easy to satisfy. Small benefits are celebrated while larger opportunities are missed. Symbolic gestures are praised while structural problems remain untouched. Citizens become grateful for what should be expected.
This is particularly dangerous in a rapidly growing economy because expectations shape accountability. If citizens demand very little, governments tend to deliver very little. If citizens are impressed by every announcement, they never stop to examine the results. If citizens continue to measure success by promises rather than outcomes, then billions of dollars can flow through the economy without producing the transformation that should accompany them.
Brazil and Argentina face their own challenges as they expand production. Brazil must ensure that its offshore platforms operate efficiently. Argentina must expand the infrastructure needed to move oil from production fields to export markets. Guyana’s challenge is different. Our challenge is ensuring that extraordinary oil wealth translates into extraordinary national development.
The true measure of success will never be the number of barrels produced offshore. It will be the quality of life experienced onshore. Citizens do not live inside production statistics. They live in homes, communities and neighborhoods. They judge progress by the quality of schools, the reliability of healthcare, the cost of food, the safety of streets and the opportunities available to their children.
The remarkable statistic in the oil forecast is that Guyana, Brazil and Argentina collectively represent only a small share of global production while accounting for more than half of expected production growth. For Guyana, however, the more important statistic may be one that has yet to be calculated. How much of this unprecedented economic opportunity ultimately reaches ordinary Guyanese families?
That is the number that matters.
The world already recognizes that Guyana is becoming an oil giant. It is time for Guyanese citizens to recognize that fact as well, because once we do, our expectations of government, institutions and national performance should rise accordingly. A country helping to drive global oil growth should not be thinking in terms of what is merely acceptable. It should be demanding what is possible.